ВЕРОДОСТОЈНОСТ ТЕОРИЈЕ МОНЕТАРНЕ ТРИЛЕМЕ НА ПРИМЕРУ ЗЕМАЉА У ТРАНЗИЦИЈИ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22190/TEME231104008SKljučne reči:
монетарна трилема, монетарна независност, девизни курс, слободан проток капитала, земље у транзицијиApstrakt
Сврха овог рада јесте да оцени поузданост, односно валидност теорије монетарне трилеме у одабраним земљама у транзицији (Албанији, Јерменији, Русији, Србији и Украјини) у периоду од 2007. до 2021. године. У раду се тестира веродостојност теорије монетарне трилеме која подразумева да није могуће истовремено водити политику стабилног девизног курса, аутономне монетарне политике и финансијске интеграције, односно слободног кретања капитала. Имајући у виду да финансијске интеграције свакако представљају камен темељац функционисања савременог света, у чланку се полази од претпоставке да избор режима девизног курса од стране дате земље утиче на степен њене монетарне аутономије. Валидност хипотезе о монетарној трилеми је процењена интуитивним моделом линеарне регресије који су предложили аутори Aizenman и др. (2013). Међутим, добијени резултати нису поткрепили валидност теорије монетарне трилеме на примеру пет анализираних земаља у транзицији у датом периоду, указујући и на закључак да избор девизног режима не утиче на ниво независности монетарне политике посматраних земаља.
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