ВЕЗА ИЗМЕЂУ ПРЕВАРНОГ ФИНАНСИЈСКОГ ИЗВЕШТАВАЊА И ПОСЛОВНОГ НЕУСПЕХА – СЛУЧАЈ ПРЕДУЗЕЋА У СТЕЧАЈУ У СРБИЈИ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22190/TEME260131028SKljučne reči:
форензичко рачуноводство, финансијски извештаји, индикатори превара, M-скор, стечајApstrakt
У условима финансијске кризе, компаније могу прибегавати манипулативним праксама како би финансијски положај и зарађивачку способност приказале повољнијим него што јесу. Након обелодањивања манипулација у финансијским извештајима, значајан број компанија одлази у стечај, а чак и када опстану, опоравак је често дуготрајан и отежан. Посебан изазов у недовољно развијеним економијама представља ограничена транспарентност у вези са починиоцима превара, што отежава развој поузданих индикатора који могу служити као рани сигнали упозорења. Овај рад испитује применљивост модела Beneish М-score са осам варијабли на узорку од 48 компанија над којима је у Републици Србији у периоду од 2017. до 2024. године покренут стечајни поступак. Циљ истраживања је идентификовање потенцијалних упозоравајућих сигнала кроз издвајање позиција финансијских извештаја које су испољавале неуобичајена кретања у годинама које су претходиле отварању стечајног поступка. Резултати указују да је 20,83% компанија класификовано као потенцијални манипулатори у периоду кризе. Уочени ризик преварног финансијског извештавања нарочито је повезан са нарушавањем односа између потраживања и прихода, са индикатором који указује на проблематичне обрасце у вези са нематеријалном имовином, као и са бржим растом административних трошкова у односу на раст прихода од продаје. Налази додатно потврђују потребу за појачаном анализом обрачунских позиција које одражавају неусаглашено признавање прихода и расхода у односу на одговарајуће новчане приливе и одливе. Резултати могу бити корисни инвеститорима, финансијским институцијама, регулаторима и агенцијама укљученим у спречавање превара и стечајне поступке, као и академским истраживачима у даљем развоју модела прилагођених специфичним карактеристикама националних економија.
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