МОНЕТАРНИ ИЗАЗОВИ ЕВРОПСКИХ ЗЕМАЉА У РАЗВОЈУ НА ПУТУ КА ЕВРО-ЗОНИ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22190/TEME180919060BKljučne reči:
евро-зона, европске земље у развоју, номинална конвергенција, реална конвергенција, ERM IIApstrakt
У раду се идентификују кључне препреке на монетарном путу европских земаља у развоју ка евро-зони. Европске земље у развоју, односно чланице ЕУ, прихватиле су или монетарни приступ двоструке промене или приступ постепене транзиције ка евро-зони. Двострука промена подразумева кретање од флуктуирајућих режима девизног курса ка ERM II таргет-зони и, коначно, монетарној унији, као ригидном режиму девизног курса. Монетарни приступ постепене транзиције су практиковале економије са углавном ригидном формом режима курса пре приступања ERM II, уз, на крају, поновно прихватање ригидног аранжмана монетарне уније. Без обзира на одабрану монетарну путању ка евро-зони, кључне потешкоће или отежавајући фактори могу се идентификовати у форми апресијације реалног девизног курса услед раста продуктивности или прилива капитала. Помирење инфлационог и таргета девизног курса је изузетно сложено, у исто време тежећи да се не угрози процес реалне конвергенције. У раду истакнути зачарани круг између реалне и номиналне конвергенције представља разлог зашто би ERM II зону требало посматрати као „собу за чекање”, а не „собу за тренирање” у пре-ЕМУ фази.
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