УТИЦАЈ МАКРОЕКОНОМСКИХ ДЕТЕРМИНАНТИ НА ПРОФИТАБИЛНОСТ КОМЕРЦИЈАЛНИХ БАНАКА У ЦЕНТРАЛНОЈ И ЈУГОИСТОЧНОЈ ЕВРОПИ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22190/TEME190515082KKljučne reči:
банка, профитабилност, макроекономске детерминанте, земље централне и југоисточне Европе, панел-моделиApstrakt
Сврха овог рада је истраживање утицаја макроекономских варијабли на показатеље профитабилности банака у земљама централне и југоисточне Европе. Узорак истраживања обухвата 13 земаља централне и југоисточне Европе: Албанија, Босна и Херцеговина, Бугарска, Хрватска, Чешка, Мађарска, Македонија, Црна Гора, Пољска, Румунија, Србија, Словачка и Словенија, за период 2008–2015. године. Основна идеја јесте емпиријско процењивање утицаја главних макро показатеља, као што су бруто домаћи производ, инфлација и реална каматна стопа на профитабилност банака, те њиховог потенцијалног односа. Предмет рада приказује моделе у два корака: модел 1 укључује принос на имовину (РОА), док модел 2 подразумева принос на капитал (РОЕ) као зависну варијаблу. С друге стране, независне варијабле су бруто домаћи производ (БДП), инфлација (ИНФ) и реална каматна стопа (РИР). Резултати панел-студије указују на то да постоји значајан ефекат БДП и ИНФ на профитабилност банака у одабраним земљама. Наиме, раст БДП и ИНФ од 1% повећава РОА за 0,47% и 0,48%, где инфлација има већи ефекат на РОА и РОЕ у односу на БДП. Резултати насумичног ефекта модела показују да раст БДП и ИНФ од 1% повећава РОЕ за 0,49% и 0,42%. Такође, реална каматна стопа нема значајан утицај на РОА и РОЕ у одабраним земљама. На основу емпиријских сазнања, творци политика треба да се усредсреде на убрзани економски раст уз контролисану инфлацију, који ће побољшати профитабилност банака у земљама централне и југоисточне Европе.
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