СПЕЦИФИЧНОСТИ НАУЧНОИСТРАЖИВАЧКОГ ПРОЦЕСА ПРЕВЕНЦИЈЕ КРИМИНАЛИТЕТА: МЕТОДОЛОШКИ И ИНТЕРДИСЦИПЛИНАРНИ ИЗАЗОВИ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22190/TEME260131025MKljučne reči:
превенција криминалитета, методологија истраживања, интердисциплинарност, криминалистичке науке, полицијске наукеApstrakt
Превенција криминалитета представља једно од централних питања савремених криминолошких и безбедносних наука, али истовремено и једно од методолошки најзахтевнијих подручја научног истраживања. Сложеност савремених облика криминалитета, њихова друштвена и технолошка условљеност, као и разуђеност теоријских оквира и практичних стратегија превенције, онемогућавају редукцију овог феномена на јединствену парадигму или стандардизовани истраживачки образац. Полазећи од тог становишта, рад је усмерен на теоријско-методолошку анализу специфичности научноистраживачког процеса у области превенције криминалитета, са посебним нагласком на фазне изазове који утичу на валидност, поузданост и интерпретативни домет истраживачких налаза. У раду се разматрају кључни методолошки проблеми, укључујући парадокс 'неоствареног криминала', тамну бројку криминалитета, контекстуалну условљеност превентивних мера и ограничења експерименталне контроле у реалним друштвеним условима. Посебна пажња посвећена је разграничењу нормативних циљева превенције од аналитичко-емпиријских хипотеза, као и теоријској условљености избора истраживачког дизајна, индикатора и извора података. Анализирају се и специфичности појединих фаза истраживања – од формулације проблема и операционализације појмова, преко постављања хипотеза, дизајна и узорковања, до прикупљања података, анализе, интерпретације и генерализације налаза. Рад додатно разматра улогу интердисциплинарног приступа у проучавању превенције криминалитета, указујући да интердисциплинарност представља методолошку нужност, али само под условом теоријске рефлектованости и аналитичке контроле. Посебно се проблематизују савремени технолошки изазови, попут сајбер-криминалитета, биг дата аналитике и предиктивних модела, који отварају нова истраживачка питања, али и нове етичке и методолошке дилеме. Закључно, рад не нуди универзални модел истраживања превенције криминалитета, већ методолошки оквир за њено критичко, научно утемељено и контекстуално одговорно проучавање.
Reference
Akers, R. L. (2009). Social learning and social structure: A general theory of crime and deviance. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315129587
Akers, R. L., & Jensen, G. F. (2003). Social learning theory and the explanation of crime. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315129594
Bandura, A. (1977). Social learning theory. Prentice Hall. https://archive.org/details/sociallearningth0000band
Beccaria, C. (1986). On crimes and punishments (Hackett Classics). Hackett Publishing Company. https://archive.org/details/oncrimespunishme0000becc
Botvin, G. J., & Griffin, K. W. (2004). Life skills training: Empirical findings and future directions. Journal of Primary Prevention, 25(2), 211–232. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOPP.0000042391.58573.5b
Braga, A. A. (2017). Focused deterrence strategies. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Criminology. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.013.11
Braga, A. A., & Weisburd, D. (2012). The effects of focused deterrence strategies on crime. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 49(3), 323–358. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427811419368
Braga, A. A., & Weisburd, D. L. (2010). Policing problem places: Crime hot spots and effective prevention. Oxford University Press. https://academic.oup.com/book/7775
Braga, A. A., Kennedy, D. M., Waring, E. J., & Piehl, A. M. (2001). Problem-oriented policing, deterrence, and youth violence: An evaluation of Boston’s Operation Ceasefire. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 38(3), 195–225. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022427801038003001
Catalano, R. F., Fagan, A. A., Gavin, L. E., Greenberg, M. T., Irwin, C. E., Ross, D. A., & Shek, D. T. L. (2012). Worldwide application of prevention science in adolescent health. The Lancet, 379(9826), 1653–1664. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60238-4
Clarke, R. V. (Ed.). (1997). Situational crime prevention: Successful case studies (2nd ed.). Harrow & Heston. https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/g/files/litvpz3631/files/scp2_intro_0_0.pdf
Clarke, R. V., & Weisburd, D. (1994). Diffusion of crime control benefits: Observations on the reverse of displacement. In R. V. Clarke (Ed.), Crime prevention studies (Vol. 2, pp. 165–184). Criminal Justice Press. https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/g/files/litvpz3631/files/library/CrimePrevention/Volume_02/08clarke.pdf
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioural sciences (2nd ed.). Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. https://archive.org/details/statisticalpower0000cohe_j0l3
Cohen, L. E., & Felson, M. (1979). Social change and crime rate trends. American Sociological Review, 44(4), 588–608. https://doi.org/10.2307/2094589
Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (1979). Quasi-experimentation: Design & analysis issues for field settings. Houghton Mifflin. https://archive.org/details/quasiexperimenta00cook
Cornish, D. B., & Clarke, R. V. (2014). The reasoning criminal: Rational choice perspectives on offending. Transaction Publishers. https://www.routledge.com/The-Reasoning-Criminal-Rational-Choice-Perspectives-on-Offending/Clarke/p/book/9781412852753
Creswell, J. W., & Plano Clark, V. L. (2011). Designing and conducting mixed methods research (2nd ed.). Sage. https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/node/52708/print
Cullen, F. T., Agnew, R., & Wilcox, P. (2014). Criminological theory: Past to present (5th ed.). Oxford University Press. https://global.oup.com/ushe/product/criminological-theory-past-to-present-9780197619315
European Crime Prevention Network. (2020). Crime prevention evaluation: A toolbox. EUCPN Secretariat. https://eucpn.org/sites/default/files/document/files/eucpn_toolbox_3_-_evaluation_of_crime_prevention_initiativeswebversion_final_1.pdf
European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA). (2022). Threat landscape report. Publications Office of the European Union. https://op.europa.eu/da/publication-detail/-/publication/791dcc19-922e-11ed-b508-01aa75ed71a1/language-en
European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights. (2014). Handbook on European data protection law. Publications Office of the European Union. https://fra.europa.eu/sites/default/files/fra-2014-handbook-data-protection-law-2nd-ed_en.pdf
European Union Agency for Fundamental Rights. (2018). #BigData: Discrimination in data-supported decision making. Publications Office of the European Union. https://fra.europa.eu/sites/default/files/fra_uploads/fra-2018-focus-big-data_en.pdf
Europol. (2023). Internet organised crime threat assessment (IOCTA). Europol. https://www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/IOCTA%202023%20-%20EN.pdf
Eurostat. (2024). Crime and criminal justice statistics: Methodological guide for users (Publication No. KS-GQ-24-010-EN-N). Publications Office of the European Union. https://www.drugsandalcohol.ie/41437/1/Eurostat_Crime_and_criminal_justice_statistics_2024.pdf
Eurostat. (n.d.). Crime statistics — Statistics Explained. Eurostat. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Crime_statistics
Farrington, D. P. (2003). Key results from the first forty years of the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development. In T. P. Thornberry & M. D. Krohn (Eds.), Taking stock of delinquency (pp. 137–183). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47945-1_5
Farrington, D. P., & Welsh, B. C. (2007). Saving children from a life of crime: Early risk factors and effective interventions. Oxford University Press. https://archive.org/details/savingchildrenfr0000farr
Fixsen, D. L., Naoom, S. F., Blase, K. A., Friedman, R. M., & Wallace, F. (2005). Implementation research: A synthesis of the literature (FMHI Publication No. 231). University of South Florida, Louis de la Parte Florida Mental Health Institute. https://nirn.fpg.unc.edu/wp-content/uploads/NIRN-MonographFull-01-2005.pdf
Forrester, D., Chatterton, M., Pease, K., & Brown, R. (1988). The Kirkholt burglary prevention project, Rochdale (Crime Prevention Unit Paper 13). Home Office. https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/g/files/litvpz3631/files/problems/burglary_home/PDFs/Forrester_Chatterton%26Pease_1988.pdf
Gill, M., & Spriggs, A. (2005). Assessing the impact of CCTV (Home Office Research Study 292). Home Office. https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/g/files/litvpz3631/files/Responses/video_surveillance/PDFs/Gill%26Spriggs_2005.pdf
Hammersley, M., & Atkinson, P. (2007). Ethnography: Principles in practice (3rd ed.). Routledge. https://archive.org/details/ethnographyprinc0000hamm
Heckman, J. J. (2006). Skill formation and the economics of investing in disadvantaged children. Science, 312(5782), 1900–1902. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1128898
Henggeler, S. W., Schoenwald, S. K., Borduin, C. M., Rowland, M. D., & Cunningham, P. B. (1998). Multisystemic treatment of antisocial behaviour in children and adolescents. Guilford Press. https://www.guilford.com/books/Multisystemic-Therapy-Antisocial-Behavior-Children-Adolescents/Henggeler-Schoenwald-Borduin-Rowland/9781606230718
Hesseling, R. B. P. (1994). Displacement: A review of the empirical literature. In R. V. Clarke (Ed.), Crime prevention studies (Vol. 3, pp. 197–230). Criminal Justice Press. https://popcenter.asu.edu/sites/g/files/litvpz3631/files/library/CrimePrevention/Volume_03/07_hesseling.pdf
Hirschi, T. (1969). Causes of delinquency. University of California Press. https://archive.org/details/causesofdelinque00hirs
Kitchin, R. (2014). The data revolution: Big data, open data, data infrastructures & their consequences. Sage Publications Ltd. https://methods.sagepub.com/book/mono/the-data-revolution/toc
Kothari, C. R. (2004). Research methodology: Methods and techniques (2nd ed.). New Age International Publishers. https://archive.org/details/researchmethodol0000koth
Lum, K., & Isaac, W. (2016). To predict and serve? Significance, 13(5), 14–19. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2016.00960.x
Milašinović, S., & Milojević, S. (2016). Projektovanje i realizovanje naučnog istraživanja. [Designing and Conducting Scientific Research]. Kriminalističko-policijska akademija. ISBN 978-86-7020-352-5. https://plus.cobiss.net/cobiss/cg/en/bib/224354572
Milojević, S., Milašinović, S., & Gligorijević, M. (2025). Metodologija, Prvi deo: Epistemološko-logičke osnove. [Methodology, Volume One: Epistemological and Logical Foundations]. Alfa BK Univerzitet. https://plus.cobiss.net/cobiss/sr/sr/bib/177036041
Milojević, S., Milašinović, S., & Milojković, B. (2025a). Police science in the 21st century: Building theoretical and methodological foundations. Teme, 49(2), 421–439. https://teme2.junis.ni.ac.rs/index.php/TEME/article/view/2033
Milojević, S., Milašinović, S., & Milojković, B. (2025b). Policija i nauka: Ka razvoju akademske discipline u službi javne bezbednosti. [Police and Science: Toward the Development of an Academic Discipline in the Service of Public Security]. Diplomatija i bezbednost, 8(1), 7–73. https://scindeks.ceon.rs/article.aspx?artid=2620-03332501007M
Milojević, S., Milašinović, S., & Milojković, B. (2026). Police science between empiricism and normativity: Specifics of scientific research. NBP. Nauka, bezbednost, policija, 31(3). https://doi.org/10.5937/nabepo31-62265
Milošević, N., & Milojević, S. (2001). Osnovi metodologije bezbednosnih nauka. [Fundamentals of the Methodology of Security Sciences]. Policijska akademija. https://plus.cobiss.net/cobiss/cg/cnr_latn/bib/4217360
Ministarstvo unutrašnjih poslova Republike Srbije. (2024a). Analize i saopštenja o kretanju kriminaliteta 2001–2023. [Analyses and Reports on Crime Trends, 2001–2023]. https://www.mup.gov.rs
Ministarstvo unutrašnjih poslova Republike Srbije. (2024b). Statistički bilten o kriminalitetu u Republici Srbiji. [Statistical Bulletin on Crime in the Republic of Serbia]. http://www.mup.gov.rs
Nagin, D. S. (2013). Deterrence in the twenty-first century. Crime and Justice, 42(1), 199–263. https://doi.org/10.1086/670398
Perry, W. L., McInnis, B., Price, C. C., Smith, S. C., & Hollywood, J. S. (2013). Predictive policing: The role of crime forecasting in law enforcement operations (Research Report No. RR-233). RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR233.html
Petrosino, A., Turpin-Petrosino, C., Hollis-Peel, M. E., & Lavenberg, J. G. (2013). “Scared Straight” and other juvenile awareness programs for preventing juvenile delinquency: A systematic review (Campbell Systematic Reviews, 9(1), 1–55). https://doi.org/10.4073/csr.2013.5
Raudenbush, S. W., & Bryk, A. S. (2002). Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods (2nd ed.). Sage Publications. https://uk.sagepub.com/en-gb/eur/hierarchical-linear-models/book9230
Sampson, R. J. (2012). Great American city: Chicago and the enduring neighbourhood effect. University of Chicago Press. https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/G/bo5514383.html
Sampson, R. J., Raudenbush, S. W., & Earls, F. (1997). Neighbourhoods and violent crime: A multilevel study of collective efficacy. Science, 277(5328), 918–924. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.277.5328.918
Shadish, W. R., Cook, T. D., & Campbell, D. T. (2002). Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for generalised causal inference (2nd ed.). Houghton Mifflin. https://books.google.com/books/about/Experimental_and_Quasi_experimental_Desi.html?id=o7jaAAAAMAAJ
Sherman, L. W., Gottfredson, D., MacKenzie, D. L., Eck, J., Reuter, P., & Bushway, S. (1998). Preventing crime: What works, what doesn’t, what’s promising: A report to the United States Congress. National Institute of Justice, U.S. Department of Justice. https://nij.ojp.gov/library/publications/preventing-crime-what-works-what-doesnt-whats-promising-report-united-states
Sutherland, E. H. (1947). Principles of criminology (4th ed.). J. B. Lippincott Company. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.34192
United Nations. (2015). Transforming our world: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. United Nations.
