УТИЦАЈ ТУРИЗМА НА ЕКОНОМСКИ РАСТ: ЕМПИРИЈСКА АНАЛИЗА НА ПРИМЕРУ РЕПУБЛИКЕ СРБИЈЕ
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22190/TEME260427017KKljučne reči:
туризам, економски раст, Република Србија, временске серије, коинтеграција, Грангерова каузалност, емпиријска анализаApstrakt
Овај рад истражује утицај туризма на економски раст Републике Србије применом емпиријске анализе временских серија. Циљ истраживања је испитивање дугорочне повезаности и смера узрочности између туристичких показатеља и бруто домаћег производа. У раду су примењене методе коинтеграције и Грангерове каузалности, уз коришћење релевантних макроекономских и туристичких индикатора, попут туристичких долазака и прихода од туризма. Резултати истраживања указују на постојање стабилне дугорочне везе између туризма и економског раста, док тестови каузалности потврђују постојање двосмерне узрочности између посматраних варијабли. Добијени налази доприносе бољем разумевању улоге туризма у економском развоју Србије и пружају основ за креирање ефикасних политика усмерених на јачање туристичког сектора као покретача привредног раста.
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