THE IMPACT OF CHRONIC NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES ON THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF THE POPULATION OF SERBIA IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 2009 AND 2019

Abstract

The high prevalence of chronic non-communicable diseases in the morbidity and mortality of the population in Serbia directly affects the dynamics of life expectancy. The top two causes of death are circulatory system diseases and tumours. Among the male population, circulatory diseases accounted for 42.4% to 49.3% of total deaths between 2009 and 2019. For women, the proportion is higher, ranging from 52.6% to 60.5%. Malignant diseases account for 19.8% to 23.8% of deaths among men and 16.7% to 18.9% among women. Respiratory diseases are the third most common cause of death for both sexes in most years of the observed period. During the same time frame, life expectancy increased by about two years, with a slightly more significant rise among men. Based on the calculated mortality tables by cause of death, the analysis shows that eliminating the leading causes of death would significantly contribute to an increase in life expectancy. The greatest positive changes in life expectancy for the period between 2009 and 2019 would occur with the hypothetical elimination of circulatory system diseases as a cause of death. Initially, in 2009, life expectancy would be about 15 years longer for women and about 10 years longer for men. Eliminating tumours would increase life expectancy by approximately 3 years for men and 2.7 years for women. Life expectancy would also be higher in 2019, though the increase would be somewhat more modest for both sexes.